Europe’s battery ecosystem is entering a new era of regulation, transparency and circularity. As electrification accelerates with electric vehicles, light means of transport, stationary energy storage, etc., the number of batteries reaching the end of their life will grow dramatically.

Projections show that the volume of end-of-life batteries in Europe could multiply by 10 between 2030 and 2040, driven by the first wave of electric-vehicle deployments and the expansion of energy-storage markets.

At the same time, the European Union has introduced ambitious material recovery and recycling targets under the Batteries Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 and related policy frameworks. By 2030, the EU aims to recover ever more cobalt, nickel, copper and lithium from spent batteries, reducing reliance on imported raw materials and supporting strategic autonomy in critical supply chains.

A Digital Battery Passport (DBP), as planned in the regulation, will provide a rich source of predictive data that can help recycling operators anticipate when batteries will retire, what materials they contain, and how much recycled resource will be available over time.

In this article, we’ll explore how predictive DBP data can transform the way recyclers forecast material availability and plan operations, and why such forecasting is crucial for a competitive and circular European battery industry.

Why Forecasting Battery Recycling Material Flows is Crucial for Recyclers

Material flow forecasting enables recycling operators to develop robust long-term business strategies. Recycling businesses must plan capital investments, capacity utilisation, workforce development and supply logistics years in advance. Without reliable forecasts of future material availability, operators risk under- or over-investing in processing capacity.

Forecasting the future availability of recyclable materials such as lithium, cobalt and nickel is therefore a strategic concern. Predictive data helps recyclers avoid bottlenecks, secure feedstock, balance cash flow and coordinate with supply chain partners.

Traditionally, recyclers have relied on historical retirement rates and general market trends to estimate material flows. However, this approach carries significant uncertainty. Battery chemistries vary widely between manufacturers and applications. Usage patterns and deployment lifetimes are influenced by factors such as climate, duty cycles and technological change. A forecasting approach based on aggregated, battery-specific lifecycle data offers a more accurate and nuanced view of future outflows of recoverable materials.

How Digital Battery Passports (DBP) Enable Predictive Material Flow Forecasting

A Digital Battery Passport provides structured information on each battery’s chemistry, capacity, performance history, and lifecycle events, as well as its state of health and usage profile. Such data is valuable not only at the moment of recycling, but also far in advance.

Role-based access to passport data enables authorised recyclers to understand when a battery is likely to retire and what materials it will return to the supply chain. Predictive analytics applied to aggregated DBP data allows operators to model future material abundance more reliably.

Predictive DBP data supports forecasting in several ways:

• Longitudinal performance data can feed models that estimate battery lifespan and retirement timing. Batteries with known usage patterns and degradation curves allow projection of when they will reach end-of-life thresholds. 
• Material composition information embedded in the passport allows recyclers to estimate expected recoverable quantities of critical metals for each battery model. 
• Historical and real-time state-of-health trends can be used to refine forecasts of outflows from different segments, such as EVs, industrial storage or consumer electronics.
• Lifecycle data enables planning for second-life transitions. Some batteries may not enter recycling directly but pass through repurposing stages. Predictive insight into these pathways improves accuracy in material flow projections.

Together, these insights help recyclers move beyond rough estimates to data-driven forecasts that inform investment, resource planning and logistics.

Strategic Implications of DBP Data for the European Battery Recycling Market

Europe’s recycling market is expected to grow rapidly in the coming decade. A recent analysis suggests that market revenues could grow from several hundred million euros in 2023 to more than three billion euros by 2030 as recycling capacity expands and economies of scale develop. Well-timed forecasts help operators capture material supply efficiently as battery retirements accelerate.

Forecasting based on DBP data also aligns with the EU’s broader circularity goals and recycled content obligations. As recycled materials are increasingly used in new battery production, confidence in material availability will reduce supply risk and support domestic processing and manufacturing. Accurate forecasting can also guide research and innovation in refining and recycling technologies as demand for certain materials rises.

Overcoming Data Gaps for Reliable DBP and Material Flow Forecasting

Currently, one of the industry’s key challenges is fragmentation in battery data. Despite the ambition of the EU Battery Regulation, many stakeholders still lack access to complete, standardised information on battery composition, origin and lifecycle. Jessika Roswall, the EU’s commissioner for environment and circular economy, has noted that traceability and data sharing remain weak in battery supply chains, limiting the ability of regulators and industry to verify sustainability claims and calculate future material flows.

The Digital Battery Passport aims to remedy this by establishing a digital identity for batteries that carries structured data across the lifecycle. Achieving broad adoption, standardised data formats and interoperability among enterprise systems is crucial for forecasts to be reliable and for predictive analytics to scale. 

How Base Contributes to Predictive Recycling Data

At the BASE project, we recognise that reliable material availability forecasting is a game-changer for the recycling sector. BASE’s Digital Battery Passport framework captures detailed, lifecycle-linked data that supports forward-looking analysis. Our platform focuses on standardised data structures, secure access control, and interoperability with enterprise systems such as battery management and asset tracking tools.

By enabling authorised recyclers to access relevant passport data early, BASE helps build predictive models that estimate future material outflows with greater confidence. Our pilots explore how integrating DBP data with analytical tools can support forecasts for lithium, cobalt and nickel availability over time, helping recycling operators and policymakers plan capacity, investments and strategic partnerships.

Looking Ahead

The volume of spent batteries in Europe will grow significantly as electric mobility and energy storage deployment continue. Recyclers that adopt predictive DBP data will be better equipped to manage material flows, optimise operations and contribute to a resilient, circular battery ecosystem.

Digital Battery Passports offer more than compliance. They provide a foundation for evidence-based forecasting, helping operators and value chain partners to anticipate material availability and to plan with confidence as Europe scales its battery recycling infrastructure.

The BASE project has received funding from the Horizon Europe Framework Programme (HORIZON) Research and Innovation Actions under grant agreement No. 101157200.

References

EU Battery Regulation (2023/1542) – Digital Battery Passport requirements: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2023/1542/2024-07-18

Brussels Signal News – Battery supply chain still lacks data, Commissioner says: https://brusselssignal.eu/2025/05/battery-supply-chain-still-lacks-data-commissioner-says

ScienceDirect – A Standardized Data Model for the Battery Passport: Paving the Way for Sustainable Battery Management: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212827124000325?via%3Dihub

BASE Project – EU Battery Regulations and the Future of Battery Passports: https://base-batterypassport.com/blog/regulations-4/eu-battery-regulations-and-the-future-of-battery-passports-47

BASE Project – Understanding the Scope of the Digital Battery Passport: EV, LMT, and Industrial Batteries: https://base-batterypassport.com/blog/technology-7/understanding-the-scope-of-the-digital-battery-passport-ev-lmt-and-industrial-batteries-60